Trading Advisory Newsletter (September 04, 2008)

Stock Trading Advisory Newsletter is provided by tradestalker.com.

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TradeStalker's

R.B.I. Trader's Update

09 / 4 / 2008

Intraday Update

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Dateline: 10:02 eastern time, es8u= 1264 nq8u= 1818

The ES bounced 5 points off of the 1262.50-1261.50 zone but must clear 1265.50 and not quickly reverse to avoid trouble.

Good trading,
Mike

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TradeStalker's

R.B.I. Trader's Update

09 / 4 / 2008

Intraday Update # 2

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Dateline: 10:41 eastern time, es8u= 1254 nq8u= 1806

The market has broken down and thus is still extremely vulnerable. The bounces don't stick. If there is a rally from here it will be sold, so short the bounces that fizzle as a collapse is likely. The 1263 level is good resistance if the market can get there.

Good trading,
Mike

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TradeStalker's

R.B.I. Trader's Update

09 / 4 / 2008

Intraday Update # 3

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Dateline: 11:27 eastern time, es8u= 1249.5 nq8u= 1803

The ES needs to get over 1255.50 and the NQ must get over 1811 to put a dent in the downside momentum. This could be a trend down day unless both of those levels are cleared and not quickly reversed.

Good trading,
Mike

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TradeStalker's

R.B.I. Trader's Update

09 / 4 / 2008

Intraday Update # 4

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Dateline: 12:44 eastern time, es8u= 1249 nq8u= 1804

If the ES doesn't hold 1248 then the 1244-1243 area is the next critical support. If there isn't a reversal from there, then 1235-1234 could be in the cards before this drop gets a respite.

Good trading,
Mike

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TradeStalker's

R.B.I. Trader's Update

09 / 4 / 2008

Intraday Update # 5

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Dateline: 1:30 eastern time, es8u= 1242 nq8u= 1790

The trend down move continues. The next key support is at the 1235-1234 zone. A move over 1245.50 resistance is needed to dent the trend down action.

Good trading,
Mike

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TradeStalker's

R.B.I. Trader's Update

09 / 4 / 2008

Intraday Update # 6

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Dateline: 2:15 eastern time, es8u= 1237.5 nq8u= 1786

The trend down move continues. A move over old support turned resistance at 1244 must be exceeded to change the trend down action. Taking some profit at the 1235-1234 zone isn't a bad idea with the Employment number tomorrow.

Good trading,
Mike

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TradeStalker's

R.B.I. Trader's Update

09 / 4 / 2008

Intraday Update # 7

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Dateline: 2:46 eastern time, es8u= 1240 nq8u= 1785

The ES should have pivotal resistance at the 1244.75 level. If that is cleared, then the pressure will be off temporarily. The bounce here should fail under 1242.00 if there's going to be another drop.
 

Dateline: 7:16 pm eastern time, 9/3/2008


The market opened lower on Wednesday and the early weakness was reversed. The SP futures poked into the 1272.00-1271.50 initial support zone and turned up, and the bounce took the SP futures to 1280.00. The market went back and tested the lows and another pop up to 1281.00 was quickly reversed. The bounces were not holding and when the 1272.00-1271.50 zone was broken, the downside continued until reaching 1265.50 on the SP futures. A bounce back to 1272.75 on the SP futures occurred as the Beige book release approached. The initial reaction was to the downside, but the after the SP futures reached 1268.50, the market reversed back to the upside and bounced back to 1274.25 on the SP futures. The market ended the day chopping around just above the 1266 level on the SP futures and managed to get to 1276.50 before the close.

Since the Tuesday morning highs to Wednesday afternoon lows, the SP futures lost 38 points while the Nasdaq futures lost 98 points. That was enough to get a bounce off of important support on Wednesday. The market finally closed on an up note, able to hold that important support area. This bounce might last for a day or so, but at the moment the market hasn't shown enough to say it's safe to jump in and be aggressively long. It's been quite the opposite, in fact.

On Thursday look for the "sell early strength, buy the first decent pullback" move in the early going. As long as the first good pullback can hold at the Wednesday low areas, then a rally from support is still possible. However, if the Wednesday low areas are not able to hold, then we could see a pretty good drop as stops gets triggered.

The first good resistance is at the 1279.50-1280.50 area on the SP futures and the 1956.50-1957.50 area on the Nasdaq futures. If those are reached and not quickly reversed, then the next resistance is at the 1284.00-1284.50 area on the SP futures and the 1867.50-1868.50 area on the Nasdaq futures. If those are exceeded, then there should be very good resistance at the 1288.50-1289.25 area on the SP futures and the 1876.50-1877.50 area on the Nasdaq futures. That's as far as a bounce should go before trouble sets in again. If they do not turn the market back down, then we could see the 1291.50-1292.00 area on the SP futures

The initial support is at the 1272.50-1272.00 area on the SP futures and the 1829.00-1828.25 area on the Nasdaq futures. If those are broken, then it's a heads up that the 1266.50- 1265.50 area on the SP futures and the 1823.00-1821.50 area on the Nasdaq futures could be tested. If those are reached and buyers don't step to the plate, then an air-pocket type of drop could occur. If that happens, the market would need to hold at the 1262.50-1261.50 area on the SP futures and the 1818.00-1816.50 area on the Nasdaq futures and reverse back up through the 1266.50 area to avoid a sharp drop lower. The 1258.00-1257.50 area on the SP futures and the 1808.50-1807.50 area on the Nasdaq futures would be minor support that could cause a reversal if the move is a fake- out.



September 2008 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu8 / big contract =spu8

1279.50-1280.50
1284.00-1284.50
1288.50-1289.25
1291.50-1292.00


September 2008 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu8 / big contract =spu8

1272.50-1272.00
1266.50-1265.50
1262.50-1261.50
1258.00-1257.50


September 2008 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu8 / big contract = ndu8

1956.50-1957.50
1867.50-1868.50
1876.50-1877.50


September 2008 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu8 / big contract = ndu8

1829.00-1828.25
1823.00-1821.50
1818.00-1816.50
1808.50-1807.50


September 2008 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymu8

11563-11569
11603-11611
11661-11666


September 2008 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymu8

11487-11483
11428-11420
11394-11388
11344-11340


September 2008 Russell futures resistance
symbols: emini = er2u8 / big contract = er2u8

743.60-744.00
747.80-748.20
751.80-752.30


September 2008 Russell futures support
symbols: emini = er2u8 / big contract = er2u8

740.00-739.70
736.60-736.10
732.90-732.20
725.40-725.00


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HOW THE DAY WENT: The selloff on Thursday was all about breaking that 1266 level on the SP500 cash.
The ES opened under that key support, and the group was told last night that "if the Wednesday low areas are not able to hold, then we could see a pretty good drop as stops gets triggered" and at 10:41 a.m. this morning (I couldn't type it fast enough) members were told that "a collapse is likely". After that was sent the ES dropped another 17+ points before making a low down at 1236.75. The intraday updates are below the nightly support/resistance tables.


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