Trading Advisory Newsletter (September 05, 2008)

Stock Trading Advisory Newsletter is provided by tradestalker.com.

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TradeStalker's

R.B.I. Trader's Update

09 / 5 / 2008

Intraday Update

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Dateline: 10:59 eastern time, es8u= 1219 nq8u= 1748

The 1226.50-1227.00 zone on the ES must be cleared, and not quickly reversed, to put a dent in the downside momentum. The 1214.00-1212.50 area on the ES and 1741.50- 1738.50 would be the next support for the market to test.

Good trading,
Mike

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TradeStalker's

R.B.I. Trader's Update

09 / 5 / 2008

Intraday Update # 2

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Dateline: 11:45 eastern time, es8u= 1224 nq8u= 1755

The 1741.50-1738.50 area on the NQ held while the ES made a 1216.50 low. This 1226.50-1227.00 zone on the ES will fail here if there's another drop coming.

Good trading,
Mike

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TradeStalker's

R.B.I. Trader's Update

09 / 5 / 2008

Intraday Update # 3

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Dateline: 12:38 eastern time, es8u= 1233 nq8u= 1770

The ES pushed thru 1226.50-1227.00 and ran to 1232.50, which coincided with the 60ema on the 5 minute chart, and that was rejected. The pullback held at the 1226.50 prior resistance. If the 1226 level breaks, then a test of the lows is still possible this afternoon. If the 1234.50 level is broken then look for resistance on a run up to the 1239.50-1240 area.

Good trading,
Mike

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TradeStalker's

R.B.I. Trader's Update

09 / 5 / 2008

Intraday Update # 4

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Dateline: 1:46 eastern time, es8u= 1233 nq8u= 1765

The moves are fast but it looks like the highs might be in especially if the NQ is leading. If 1230 on the ES is broken then we should test 1226.00 and maybe test the lows. If 1236.50 is broken, then a pop up towards 1239.50-1240.00 will likely fail. The market opened lower on Thursday and under the key support that was at the Wednesday lows. There was a quick reversal off of the 1262.50-1261.50 support zone on the SP futures, but the bounce from 1261.50 to 1268.00 fizzled and the downside reasserted itself. As it was noted last night:

"...if the Wednesday low areas are not able to hold, then we could see a pretty good drop as stops gets
triggered"

That was the case and it was reiterated at 10:41 am when I wrote "a collapse is likely". It was basically trend-down into 2 pm, as the 20 period ema on the 5 minute chart and the 5 and 15 period sma's on the 13 minute charts acted as dynamic resistance most of the day. After getting to 1236.75 on the SP futures, the market made a feeble bounce. The SP futures poked over the 1244.75 level for about 10 seconds before turning right back down, and after some churning the market rolled over and made new lows (with the SP futures reaching the 1235.00-1234.50 zone) in the final minutes of trading.

We get the Jobs number before the open on Friday. It probably won't matter unless there is something very unexpected reported. The market can not hold on to a rally, and the break-out under the 1266 level on the SP500 cash and futures is a negative. Unless there is a move over the initial resistance areas, that isn't quickly reversed again, the bounces will set up good shorting opportunities as soon as the upside fizzles. A break and hold over the initial resistance will be necessary to get a decent bounce going.

On Friday look for shorting opportunities on the rallies that stall/reverse. The trends and momentum are pointing lower, so don't fight the trend. It will take a close back over the 1266 level to change things short term, so even a good one day rally will likely set up a good shorting opportunity. A break and hold over the initial resistance areas would be a plus, very short term. However, a move over those areas that then breaks back down through them would be a fake-out and start another drop. A crashette type of drop could occur under the current conditions.

The initial resistance is at the 1245.00-1245.75 area on the SP futures and 1792.00-1793.00 area on the Nasdaq futures. If those areas are reached, and the move stalls out, it's a shorting opportunity with a pretty tight stop. If those are not a problem, then the next hurdles are at the 1252.25- 1252.75 area on the SP futures and 1812.50-1814.00 area on the Nasdaq futures. That is as far as a bounce should go if the market is going to revisit the lows soon. If those areas are both exceeded, and the market doesn't reverse, then a move towards the 1261.50-1262.50 area on the SP futures and 1822.75-1824.00 area on the Nasdaq futures could be in the cards.

The initial support is at the 1235.00-1234.50 area on the SP futures and 1773.50-1772.50 area on the Nasdaq futures. If those are broken, then there is minor support at the 1230.00-1229.50 area on the SP futures and 1766.75-1765.50 area on the Nasdaq futures. There should be better support at the 1225.00-1224.50 area on the SP futures and 1758.50- 1757.50 area on the Nasdaq futures. If the market can not hold those areas, then a slide towards the 1214.00-1212.50 area on the SP futures and 1741.50-1738.50 area on the Nasdaq futures is in the cards. If the downside snowballs, the drop could test the 1200.75 level on the SP futures. If that happens, and 1200 doesn't hold, then we will likely see the 1184-1182 area on the SP futures reached on this leg down.


September 2008 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu8 / big contract =spu8

1245.00-1245.75
1252.25-1252.75
1261.50-1262.50

September 2008 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu8 / big contract =spu8

1235.00-1234.50
1230.00-1229.50
1225.00-1224.50
1214.00-1212.50 - key
1200.75
1184-1182 - a target for a low on this leg down


September 2008 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu8 / big contract = ndu8

1792.00-1793.00
1812.50-1814.00
1822.75-1824.00

September 2008 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu8 / big contract = ndu8

1773.50-1772.50
1766.75-1765.50
1758.50-1757.50
1741.50-1738.50

September 2008 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymu8

11265-11267
11320-11325
11397-11402

September 2008 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymu8

11182-11177
11135-11129
11108-11102
11007-10998

September 2008 Russell futures resistance
symbols: emini = er2u8 / big contract = er2u8

722.10-722.40
726.50-727.10
731.60-732.10

September 2008 Russell futures support
symbols: emini = er2u8 / big contract = er2u8

717.70-717.30
715.40-715.00
711.20-710.70
705.60-705.10

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HOW THE DAY WENT: The early drop reached 1216.50 on the ES, just over the last good support zone, however it was the NQ that lead the way. It nailed our 1741.50- 1738.50 zone and turned up. And once the 1226.50 new resistance was broken on the ES, it went into trend-up mode. I misjudged the market in the early afternoon. However, near the end of the day Members were told to short the NQ and the ES reversed from its 1245.00-1245.75 key resistance and we had a decent drop into the close. This weekend's update will have us ready to go come Monday morning. New trial subscribers, the intraday updates are copied below the nightly update support and resistance tables.


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